Survivorship bias is a common logical error that distorts our understanding of the world. It happens when we assume that success tells the whole story and when we don’t adequately consider past failures.

幸存者偏差是一种常见的逻辑错误，会让我们对世界的理解产生偏差。这种偏差发生在我们只关注成功案例，认为这些代表了全貌，而忽视那些失败经历的时候。

There are thousands, even tens of thousands of failures for every big success in the world. But stories of failure are not as sexy as stories of triumph, so they rarely get covered and shared. As we consume one story of success after another, we forget the base rates and overestimate the odds of real success.

在这个世界上，每一个巨大的成功背后都有成千上万，甚至数以万计的失败。然而，失败的故事往往不像成功的故事那么引人注目，所以很少被报道和分享。当我们一个又一个地听到成功的故事时，常常忘记了失败的普遍性，误以为成功的机会比实际要高得多。

“See,” says he, “you who deny a providence, how many have been saved by their prayers to the Gods.”

“瞧，”他说，“你们这些否认神灵庇佑的人，看看有多少人因向神祈祷而得救。”

“Ay,” says Diagoras, “I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?”

“是的，”迪亚哥拉斯说，“我看到了那些得救的人，可那些遇难的人画在哪里呢？”

The Basics

基础知识